Category Uncategorized

Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways

A new and updated version of our armed conflict forecasts were recently published in Environmental Research Letters: ‘Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways’, written by myself as well as Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, and Elisabeth Gilmore. More details, link to the open-access article, and replication data can be found here.

Poor research or what?

Of interest to those that read Norwegian: My colleague Nils Petter Gleditsch just published a PRIO blog post in response to a recent article in the Norwegian daily Aftenposten where Øivind Østerud criticizes the ‘waning-of-war’ argument promoted by Steven Pinker and several PRIO researchers. As Nils Petter notes, the debate is quite parochial, but I agree with Nils Petter that attempts to counter solid empirical research with a couple of anecdotes sometimes must be responded to…

ISA and blogs

The Guardian just published a news item on a recent proposal from the 2013 executive committee of the International Studies Association to sever ‘any connection between blogs and ISA journals’ – full details are given in a recent blog post by Stephen Saideman.

I am member of this year’s executive committee of the ISA and also on the editorial board of an ISA journal. I here make use of my own rarely-updated blog to voice my disagreement with the proposal and demonstrate that I am happy to violate it. As noted by Kristian Gleditsch in a comment to the Guardian article, this proposal is not yet adopted policy and will be subject to debate within the organization.

Welcome to my homepage

These pages present my research. They contain a complete publication list as well as downloadable versions of many items, and replication data for several of my published studies. The publications are grouped thematically under ‘Research topics’. The pages also present some of my larger, collaborative research projects in detail under ‘Projects’. Thanks to Idunn Kristiansen for designing the pages!