These pages present my research. They contain a complete publication list as well as downloadable versions of many items, and replication data for several of my published studies. The publications are grouped thematically under ‘Research topics’. The pages also present some of my larger, collaborative research projects in detail under ‘Projects’. Thanks to Idunn Kristiansen for designing the pages!

A new and updated version of our armed conflict forecasts were recently published in Environmental Research Letters: ‘Forecasting civil conflict along the shared socioeconomic pathways’, written by myself as well as Halvard Buhaug, Katherine V. Calvin, Jonas Nordkvelle, Stephanie T. Waldhoff, and Elisabeth Gilmore. More details, link to the open-access article, and replication data can be found here.

Tore Wig, myself, and Pat Regan just published an article in Research & Politics that presents an updated version of the Institutions and Elections Project (IAEP) dataset, originally developed by Pat and David Clark. The dataset comprises information on 107 de jure institutional provisions, and 16 variables related to electoral procedures and electoral events, for 170 countries in the period 1960–2012. The article is freely available, as well as the dataset, codebook, and other material.

Elections1This figure illustrates the constitutional provisions for elections in Argentina. We have also posted such illustrations for all countries and all 123 variables.

Of interest to those that read Norwegian: My colleague Nils Petter Gleditsch just published a PRIO blog post in response to a recent article in the Norwegian daily Aftenposten where Øivind Østerud criticizes the ‘waning-of-war’ argument promoted by Steven Pinker and several PRIO researchers. As Nils Petter notes, the debate is quite parochial, but I agree with Nils Petter that attempts to counter solid empirical research with a couple of anecdotes sometimes must be responded to…

The process of democratization is often violent in the short run, and democratic governments are more constrained in their use of force against insurgents than non-democratic authorities. But are democracies really more prone to political violence than other political systems? This is the theme of a short article published at the International Relations and Security Network (ISN) at ETH Zürich.

The Guardian just published a news item on a recent proposal from the 2013 executive committee of the International Studies Association to sever ‘any connection between blogs and ISA journals’ – full details are given in a recent blog post by Stephen Saideman.

I am member of this year’s executive committee of the ISA and also on the editorial board of an ISA journal. I here make use of my own rarely-updated blog to voice my disagreement with the proposal and demonstrate that I am happy to violate it. As noted by Kristian Gleditsch in a comment to the Guardian article, this proposal is not yet adopted policy and will be subject to debate within the organization.

New paper: Why Waves? The ‘Arab Spring’ demonstrated that political transitions tend to occur together in space and time. Samuel Huntington coined the term ‘Waves of democratization’ in his book The Third Wave. The figure above shows that changes to the proportion of the world’s countries that are democracies occurs in spurts. Confirming Huntington’s three waves […]

We just posted a set of pages detailing our armed conflict forecasting projects. The pages show that our forecasting model indicates that the world will continue to see a decline in internal armed conflict over the next few decades. We present in detail the forecasts developed for an academic article published in International Studies Quarterly this year. You may take a closer look at what we predict for regions and even individual countries. The pages also explain in detail our methodology and summarize what explains these optimistic forecasts. You will also find a presentation of the research team as well as links to other projects that seek to forecast political events like armed conflict, genocides, or state failure. Read more »