Conflict forecasting projects
- WardLab creates conflict predictions using Bayesian modeling and network analysis. Headed by Michael D. Ward.
- Penn State Event Data Project at Penn State University produces papers dealing with methodological and practical applications of events data to various forecasting models. Includes Philip A. Schrodt, Benjamin E. Bagozzi,Vito D’Orazio, Marsha Sowell, and Jay Yonamine.
- Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) by the Center for Preventive Action evaluates ongoing and potential violent conflicts based on polls with experts in the field.
- Forecasting ACE of the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA)’s Aggregative Contingent Estimation (ACE) Program explores new methods and techniques to combine predictions from analysts in order to provide more accurate forecasts of global events.
- Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM) at University of Maryland publishes a peace and conflict instability ledger.
- Center for Systemic Peace provides assessments of state fragility.
- Fund for Peace publishes an annual failed state index.
Individual forecasting papers
Blattman, Chris; Blair, Robert; & Hartman, Alexandra (2011). Patterns of Conflict and Cooperation in Liberia (Part 2): Prospects for Conflict Forecasting and Early Warning. New Haven: Innovations for Poverty Action.
Brandt, Patrick T.; Freeman, John R.; & Schrodt, Philip A. (2011). Real Time, Time Series Forecasting of Inter- and Intra-state Political Conflict. Conflict Management and Peace Science 28(1): 41–64.
Goldstone, Jack A.; Bates, Robert H.; Epstein, David L.; Gurr, Ted Robert; Lustik, Michael B.; Marshall, Monty G.; Ulfelder, Jay; Woodward, Mark (2010). A Global Model for Forecasting Political Instability. American Journal of Political Science 54(1): 190-208.
Ulfelder, Jay (2013). A Multimodel Ensemble for Forecasting Onsets of State-Sponsored Mass Killing. APSA 2013 Annual Meeting Paper.
Ward, Michael D.; & Bakke, Kristin (2005). Predicting Civil Conflicts: On The Utility Of Empirical Research. Conference on Disaggregating the Study of Civil War and Transnational Violence, University of California Institute of Global Conflict and Cooperation.
Ward, Michael D.; Greenhill, Brian D.; & Bakke, Kristin (2010). The Perils of Policy by p-Value: Predicting Civil Conflicts. Journal of Peace Research 47(4): 363-375.
Weidmann, Nils B.; & Ward, Michael D. (2010): Predicting Conflict in Space and Time. Journal of Conflict Resolution 54(6): 883-901.
Yonamine, James E. (2013). Predicting Future Levels Of Violence In Afghanistan Districts Using Gdelt.