Conflict forecasts

These pages show our most recent conflict forecasts, based on data for 1970–2011 and extending up to 2050. Details regarding this particular version of the forecasts are found in Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050 (International Studies Quarterly 57(2) 2013).

Global forecasts | Regional forecasts | Country-level forecasts

The forecasts are based on predictors such as population, infant mortality rates (IMR), secondary education, youth population, and conflict history. We deal with internal armed conflict, defined as conflict over a political incompatibility between a government and an organized opposition that leads to at least 25 battle-related deaths per year, and distinguish between minor (25–999 deaths per year) and major conflict (more than 1000 deaths per year).

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