How well do we predict?

To assess how well our model predicts we present two out-of-sample evaluations:

In the page observed vs. predicted conflict, 2012 we compare our predictions in the article Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050 with the most recent observations from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset (version 4, 2013).

In observed vs. predicted conflict, 2007-2009, we present the out-of-sample evaluations based on the original article.

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