Forecasting the future of armed conflict

We just posted a set of pages detailing our armed conflict forecasting projects. The pages show that our forecasting model indicates that the world will continue to see a decline in internal armed conflict over the next few decades. We present in detail the forecasts developed for an academic article published in International Studies Quarterly this year. You may take a closer look at what we predict for regions and even individual countries. The pages also explain in detail our methodology and summarize what explains these optimistic forecasts. You will also find a presentation of the research team as well as links to other projects that seek to forecast political events like armed conflict, genocides, or state failure. Read more »

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