To assess how well our model predicts we present two out-of-sample evaluations:
In the page observed vs. predicted conflict, 2012 we compare our predictions in the article Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050 with the most recent observations from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset (version 4, 2013).
In observed vs. predicted conflict, 2007-2009, we present the out-of-sample evaluations based on the original article.
Håvard Hegre 