The figures below show the observed and predicted share of countries in conflict, as well as the average values on the underlying predictors, for three regions in Sub-Saharan Africa: West Africa, East/Central Africa, and Southern Africa. The lower graphs in the figures reflect how poor and under-developed these regions are. Infant mortality rates are today about 90 in West Africa, 75 in East and Central Africa, and 60 in Southern Africa, and about half of the male population in the 20-24 year group are lacking secondary education. The East and Central African region in particular has been very violent, with conflicts in up to 60% of the countries in the late 1990s. Even though the UN and the IIASA expect the predictors to improve sharply over the next forty years, the heavy conflict history and the low level of socio-economic development means that our simulations do not yield any clear reduction in the incidence of conflict until 25 years from now.
Håvard Hegre 