The upper part of the figure below shows the historic observations and projections for the incidence of conflict for South and Central America. The Americas used to be very violent, but after the mid-1990s the region has become much more peaceful. Over the last decade, only Colombia and Peru have seen conflicts. We predict that also these conflicts will disappear over the next 30 years.
The lower part of the figure indicates why. South and Central America has developed into mostly middle-income countries in which conflicts are rare. Infant mortality rates are now under 20 per thousand in this region, well below the global average of 35, and the proportion without secondary education is close to the global average of 28%. The infant mortality rate, the share of people without secondary education, and the share of youth population, will continue to decline in the future, according to UN and IIASA estimates.
Håvard Hegre 