The figures below display the observed and predicted share of countries in conflict, as well as the average values on the underlying predictors, for two regions in Asia: South/Central Asia and Eastern/South-East Asia. In most of the years since 1995, over a third of the countries in South and Central Asia, and about a fifth of the countries in Eastern and South-East Asia, have experienced conflict.
The lower graphs in the figures show that infant mortality rates have declined in both regions since 1995, especially in South and Central Asia. However, these are still over 50 per 1000 in South and Central Asia, and about 25 in Eastern and South-East Asia. Together with the youth population and the share of population without secondary education, the infant mortality rate is expected to decline further over the next forty years, according to the UN and IIASA estimates. We therefore also predict a reduction in the incidence of conflict over the next decades. However, due to the conflict history, the low level of socio-economic development and the large populations of these countries, we still expect to see considerable amounts of conflict in these regions in the future.
Håvard Hegre 