Our earlier forecasts

In addition to the most recent forecasts of the future of armed conflict, the project aims at increasing the understanding of the causes of conflict by utilizing simulations and predictions to forecast the onset and spread of conflict and democracy. Our other papers look at how conflicts breed conflicts – or how outbreaks of conflict affect the risk of future conflict, as well as how UN peacekeeping operations affect the risk of further armed conflict.

See the list of related publications.

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