Observed vs. predicted conflict, 2012

The table below includes countries with the highest predicted risk of conflict, i.e. predicted probability of ‘either’ conflict over 0.300 (or where conflict occurs in over 30 percent of the simulations), and/or observed conflict in 2012. These predictions are from the article Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010-2050, and data on observed conflict are from the UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset (version 4, 2013).

Highest predicted risk of conflict and/or observed conflict in 2012
Country Predicted conflict Observed conflict Classification
Minor Major Either
Ethiopia 0.879 0.057 0.936 Minor TP
Philippines 0.865 0.038 0.902 Minor TP
India 0.700 0.155 0.855 Minor TP
Afghanistan 0.290 0.556 0.847 Major TP
Myanmar 0.752 0.087 0.839 Minor TP
Thailand 0.783 0.056 0.839 Minor TP
Algeria 0.743 0.076 0.819 Minor TP
Somalia 0.334 0.405 0.739 Major TP
Russia 0.569 0.154 0.722 Minor TP
Pakistan 0.380 0.331 0.711 Major TP
Sudan 0.499 0.211 0.710 Major TP
Colombia 0.547 0.090 0.637 Minor TP
Chad 0.479 0.144 0.623 Non FP
Angola 0.394 0.224 0.619 Non FP
Congo, Dem. Rep. 0.350 0.251 0.600 Minor TP
Uganda 0.415 0.180 0.595 Non FP
Mali 0.525 0.047 0.571 Minor TP
Sri Lanka 0.293 0.275 0.568 Non FP
Turkey 0.443 0.119 0.561 Minor TP
Iraq 0.313 0.244 0.558 Minor TP
Nigeria 0.408 0.140 0.548 Minor TP
Peru 0.457 0.088 0.545 Non FP
Rwanda 0.355 0.185 0.540 Minor TP
Iran 0.389 0.119 0.508 Non FP
Burundi 0.325 0.175 0.500 Non FP
Central African Republic 0.273 0.167 0.439 Minor TP
Yemen 0.251 0.123 0.374 Major TP
Niger 0.301 0.058 0.359 Non FP
Israel 0.246 0.052 0.298 Minor FN
Azerbaijan 0.075 0.042 0.117 Minor FN
Syria 0.018 0.005 0.023 Major FN

Conflict is defined in accordance with the UCDP/PRIO dataset as contested incompatibility between a government and an organized opposition group causing at least 25 battle-related deaths during a calendar year (Themner and Wallensteen 2011). The three conflict levels are ‘no conflict’ or less than 25 battle-related deaths reported in a year; ‘minor conflict’ or between 25 and 999 battle-related deaths per year; and ‘major conflict’ with more than 1,000 battle-related deaths per year.

The classification column at the right of the table shows the relation between predicted and observed conflict in 2012. True positive (TP) implies that the country had observed conflict in 2012 and was also expected to have conflict according to our estimates (with predicted probability of ‘either’ >= 0.300). False positive (FP) means that the country did not have conflict in 2012, although it was predicted to (‘either’ >= 0.300). True negative (TN) implies that the country was neither expected to have conflict or had conflict (‘either’ < 0.300). False negative (FN) means that the country had observed conflict in 2012, but was not predicted to (‘either’ < 0.300).

The classification table below summarizes our predictions for 2012 compared to the observed conflict situation. It includes the countries in the table above as well as the countries classified as ‘true negatives’ (TN). Conflicts are considered to be predicted if conflict occurs in more than 30 percent of the simulations, i.e. where predicted probability is over 0.300.

Classification of predicted and observed conflicts in 2012
Observed conflict Observed non-conflict
Predicted conflict  20  8
Non-predicted conflict  3  138

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