These pages present my research. They contain a complete publication list as well as downloadable versions of many items, and replication data for several of my published studies. The publications are grouped thematically under ‘Research topics’. The pages also present some of my larger, collaborative research projects in detail under ‘Projects’. Thanks to Idunn Kristiansen for designing the pages!

The process of democratization is often violent in the short run, and democratic governments are more constrained in their use of force against insurgents than non-democratic authorities. But are democracies really more prone to political violence than other political systems? This is the theme of a short article published at the International Relations and Security Network (ISN) at ETH Zürich.

The Guardian just published a news item on a recent proposal from the 2013 executive committee of the International Studies Association to sever ‘any connection between blogs and ISA journals’ – full details are given in a recent blog post by Stephen Saideman.

I am member of this year’s executive committee of the ISA and also on the editorial board of an ISA journal. I here make use of my own rarely-updated blog to voice my disagreement with the proposal and demonstrate that I am happy to violate it. As noted by Kristian Gleditsch in a comment to the Guardian article, this proposal is not yet adopted policy and will be subject to debate within the organization.

New paper: Why Waves? The ‘Arab Spring’ demonstrated that political transitions tend to occur together in space and time. Samuel Huntington coined the term ‘Waves of democratization’ in his book The Third Wave. The figure above shows that changes to the proportion of the world’s countries that are democracies occurs in spurts. Confirming Huntington’s three waves […]

We just posted a set of pages detailing our armed conflict forecasting projects. The pages show that our forecasting model indicates that the world will continue to see a decline in internal armed conflict over the next few decades. We present in detail the forecasts developed for an academic article published in International Studies Quarterly this year. You may take a closer look at what we predict for regions and even individual countries. The pages also explain in detail our methodology and summarize what explains these optimistic forecasts. You will also find a presentation of the research team as well as links to other projects that seek to forecast political events like armed conflict, genocides, or state failure. Read more »